On a recent debate last week on CNN, democrats were in a heated discussion where neither the moderators nor the participants engrossed on the economy of the country. The debate focused less on the 2020 Presidential Election Model by Moody, a professional forecast released moments before.
Conversely, voters are keeping mind of the economy, and much of Moody accurate predictions have led President Trump in winning every scenario. The Pocketbook model, the first among three of Moody’s models, predicates Trump gaining a victory with a land sliding electoral votes of 351 against 187 against an established Democratic candidate. Three variables are focused by the Pocketbook model: home prices, real personal income and gas prices.
Regrettably for the Democratic Party, this model is deemed significant because of the economic variables in the long-term. The solution is the kitchen-table economics in most elections.
The principal basis for The Stock Market Model is the market itself. However, it has a flaw, the reason being Trump as he is not liked by most economists as their work suggests. The assumptions are based on eco-ticians claiming that there will be a fall in GDP, the lowest in years and a fall of 9% in the S&P 500, rather than basing their calculations on definite returns.
However the results lead to believe according to the Stock Market model projections that President Trump will win again with 289 votes against 249.
Different state-specific rates of employment are included in the Unemployment model, predicting Trump as the victor with electoral votes of 332 against 206. It is not shocking news as employment rates have reduced to a record-low of 3.5% with millions receiving and working on jobs.
The final summary of Moody economic scenario says that Democrats have a chance in winning if only by turning record level votes, however under ordinary circumstances the president is on a clear path to victory.